Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4925
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9 Tomorrow
WN 4925 · AUS → ELP
departs 9:40 PM CT · arrives 10:25 PM MT
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 51%
Mon 11/9
Thu 11/12 38%
Fri 11/13 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±3 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at ELP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ELP?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from AUS are often late
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ELP
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.17 in
ELP (destination)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.