Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 493
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9 Tomorrow
WN 493 · OAK → SNA
departs 8:30 PM PT · arrives 10:02 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 34%
Mon 11/9
Tue 11/10 10%
Wed 11/11 14%
Thu 11/12 20%
Fri 11/13 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at SNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SNA?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from OAK are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.2 mi Precip none
SNA (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.