Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 5129
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9 Today
WN 5129 · BWI → LAS
departs 5:40 PM ET · arrives 7:52 PM PT
Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±2 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 52% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from BWI are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 3 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.