Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 526
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9
WN 526 · DEN → PHX
departs 4:38 PM MT · arrives 6:41 PM MT
Forecast issued Sat 6:00 AM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/8 30%
Mon 11/9
Tue 11/10 19%
Wed 11/11 19%
Thu 11/12 27%
Fri 11/13 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±8 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed – in 24h
–
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
4pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.