Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 563
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9 Tomorrow
WN 563 · SMF → MCO
departs 10:31 PM PT · arrives 6:44 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 27%
Mon 11/9
Thu 11/12 25%
Fri 11/13 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.1d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Other factors
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.