Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 785
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9
WN 785 · OAK → AUS
departs 9:56 AM PT · arrives 3:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Sun 11/8 25%
Mon 11/9
Thu 11/12 20%
Fri 11/13 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±4 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at AUS that day
↑
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK
↓
9am departures from OAK are usually not late
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.28 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.