Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 824
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9
WN 824 · DAL → SMF
departs 8:52 PM CT · arrives 10:40 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Sun 11/8 37%
Mon 11/9
Thu 11/12 38%
Fri 11/13 43%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed – in 24h
–
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from DAL are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DAL
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.