Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 855
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9 Tomorrow
WN 855 · SEA → OAK
departs 8:39 PM PT · arrives 10:47 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 47%
Mon 11/9
Tue 11/10 27%
Wed 11/11 30%
Thu 11/12 46%
Fri 11/13 52%
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±4 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at SEA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.7 mi forecast at OAK that day
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.28 in
OAK (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.