Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 863
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9 Tomorrow
WN 863 · SJC → PDX
departs 9:30 PM PT · arrives 11:26 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Mon 11/9
Thu 11/12 32%
Fri 11/13 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±3 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at PDX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PDX?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from SJC are often late
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.2 mi forecast at SJC that day
Weather at each end
SJC (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.2 mi Precip none
PDX (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.35 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.