Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 9005 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 9

WN 9005 · MCI → STL

departs 6:00 PM CT · arrives 7:14 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 6pm departures from MCI are often late

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ MCI usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MCI (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

STL (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 9005 · MCI → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?