Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 964
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9
WN 964 · BUR → OAK
departs 6:32 PM PT · arrives 7:56 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/8 44%
Mon 11/9
Tue 11/10 16%
Wed 11/11 17%
Thu 11/12 35%
Fri 11/13 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from BUR are often late
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK
Weather at each end
BUR (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
OAK (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.