Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3616
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9
YX 3616 · EWR → YYZ
departs 6:01 PM ET · arrives 7:45 PM EST
Forecast issued Sat 3:00 AM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Sun 11/8 25%
Mon 11/9
Tue 11/10 29%
Wed 11/11 42%
Thu 11/12 40%
Odds over time
Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±13 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at YYZ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to YYZ?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
6pm departures from EWR are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 31 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
YYZ (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 3,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.