Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3651
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9
YX 3651 · IAD → PWM
departs 10:06 PM ET · arrives 12:05 AM ET
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/8 7%
Mon 11/9
Tue 11/10 18%
Thu 11/12 12%
Fri 11/13 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at PWM more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PWM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at PWM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PWM?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10pm departures from IAD are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into PWM at that hour are often late
↓
Gusts to 25 kt forecast at IAD that day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PWM (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 4,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.