Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3711
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9
YX 3711 · YYZ → EWR
departs 8:34 PM EST · arrives 10:21 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/8 34%
Mon 11/9
Tue 11/10 37%
Wed 11/11 56%
Thu 11/12 46%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±11 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave YYZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at YYZ
Weather at each end
YYZ (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 3,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
EWR (destination)
Gusts 31 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.