Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5727
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9
YX 5727 · LGA → BOS
departs 3:00 PM ET · arrives 4:33 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/8 22%
Mon 11/9
Tue 11/10 26%
Wed 11/11 41%
Thu 11/12 46%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±22 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BOS (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.