Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 9929
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9
YX 9929 · MSN → STL
departs 9:19 PM CT · arrives 10:57 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 3:00 PM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave MSN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
94%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into STL at that hour are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSN
Weather at each end
MSN (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
STL (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.