AA 3079 · PHL → SFO

departs 1:45 PM ET · arrives 4:42 PM PT

Your aircraft is N978UY (A321), coming in as AA 1194 from BNA: landed 1:19 PM ET.

Forecast issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

80% chance · ±0 pts +18 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ 1pm departures from PHL are often late

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9.66667 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3079 · PHL → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?