Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3220 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, November 10

AA 3220 · TUL → DFW

departs 7:25 AM CT · arrives 8:45 AM CT

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 51h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 18% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TUL

Weather at each end

TUL (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling4,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3220 · TUL → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?