AA 521 · LGA → MCO

took off 3:43 PM ET · landed 6:03 PM ET (scheduled 2:09 PM ET → 4:55 PM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±2 pts +20 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to MCO?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
✓
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts4 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 521 · LGA → MCO

Odds over time

How late did it get to MCO?