Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 9789 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, November 10

AA 9789 · SAT → SAT

departs 3:45 PM CT · arrives 6:31 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 53h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 3pm departures from SAT are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 9789 · SAT → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?