Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1049 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, November 10

AS 1049 · OGG → LIH

departs 12:16 PM HT · arrives 1:06 PM HT

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 59h before departure

Arrive at LIH more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LIH?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↑ Other factors

↑ LIH is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Gusts to 28 kt forecast at OGG that day

Weather at each end

OGG (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LIH (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1049 · OGG → LIH

Odds over time

How late will it get to LIH?