Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1451 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, November 10

AS 1451 · SFO → SAN

departs 2:39 PM PT · arrives 4:10 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling2,900 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1451 · SFO → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?