Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1602 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, November 10

AS 1602 · SEA → YVR

departs 11:21 AM PT · arrives 1:18 PM MST

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 67h before departure

Arrive at YVR more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YVR?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at YVR that day

↑ 0.5 in of rain forecast at SEA that day

↑ 11am departures from SEA are often late

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ YVR usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.55 in

YVR (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.62 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1602 · SEA → YVR

Odds over time

How late will it get to YVR?