Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 222 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, November 10

AS 222 · SAN → KOA

departs 11:57 AM PT · arrives 4:02 PM HT

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 63h before departure

Arrive at KOA more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to KOA?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ KOA is prone to delays

↑ 11am departures from SAN are often late

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

KOA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 222 · SAN → KOA

Odds over time

How late will it get to KOA?