Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 2688 LANDED 7:05 PM ET, ~8 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, November 10 Today

AS 2688 · SMF → CVG

took off 12:20 PM PT · landed 7:05 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ SMF is prone to delays

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CVG

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CVG (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 2688 · SMF → CVG

Odds over time