Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 2691 IN THE AIR (OFF 1:21 AM ET, ETA 2:42 AM PT) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, November 10 Today

AS 2691 · CVG → SMF

took off 1:21 AM ET · expected to land 2:42 AM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ This route's recent record

↑ SMF is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

CVG (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 2691 · CVG → SMF

Odds over time