Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 374 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, November 10

AS 374 · SEA → AUS

departs 11:50 AM PT · arrives 5:42 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 68h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.5 in of rain forecast at SEA that day

↑ 11am departures from SEA are often late

↑ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.55 in

AUS (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.4 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 374 · SEA → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?