Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 421 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, November 10

AS 421 · SEA → DEN

departs 2:10 PM PT · arrives 5:41 PM MT

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 59h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↑ 2pm departures from SEA are often late

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.36 in

DEN (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 421 · SEA → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?