Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 443 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, November 10

AS 443 · PHL → SEA

departs 5:50 PM ET · arrives 8:17 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at SEA that day

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.36 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 443 · PHL → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?