Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 487 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, November 10

AS 487 · SEA → LAX

departs 12:05 PM PT · arrives 2:39 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 63h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at SEA that day

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.34 in

LAX (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 487 · SEA → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?