Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 493 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, November 10

AS 493 · DEN → SEA

departs 3:21 PM MT · arrives 5:10 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 59h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

32% chance · ±13 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.4 in of rain forecast at SEA that day

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↑ 3pm departures from DEN are often late

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.36 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 493 · DEN → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?