Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 526 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, November 10

AS 526 · SMF → SFO

departs 10:37 AM PT · arrives 11:21 AM PT

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 67h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 526 · SMF → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?