Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 580 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, November 10

AS 580 · SFO → SEA

departs 10:41 AM PT · arrives 12:40 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 67h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.5 in of rain forecast at SEA that day

↑ 10am departures from SFO are often late

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.55 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 580 · SFO → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?