Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 61 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, November 10

AS 61 · YAK → CDV

departs 11:21 AM AKST · arrives 12:13 PM AKT

Forecast issued Sun 1:00 AM ET · 62h before departure

Arrive at CDV more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CDV?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 44 kt, 0.8 in of rain forecast at CDV that day

↑ Gusts to 38 kt, 0.5 in of rain forecast at YAK that day

↑ Other factors

↓ 11am departures from YAK are usually not late

↓ CDV usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

YAK (origin) Gusts38 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.55 in

CDV (destination) Gusts44 kt Ceiling2,900 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.78 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 61 · YAK → CDV

Odds over time

How late will it get to CDV?