Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 626 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, November 10

AS 626 · SEA → HNL

departs 12:02 PM PT · arrives 3:35 PM HT

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 63h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at SEA that day

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.34 in

HNL (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling2,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 626 · SEA → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?