Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 656 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, November 10

AS 656 · SFO → SEA

departs 12:16 PM PT · arrives 2:14 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 63h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
27%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 40% of the time recently

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at SEA that day

↑ 12pm departures from SFO are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.34 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 656 · SFO → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?