Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 7005 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, November 10

AS 7005 · JNU → SIT

departs 6:27 AM AKST · arrives 7:17 AM AKST

Forecast issued Sat 1:00 PM ET · 70h before departure

Arrive at SIT more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±4 pts −10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SIT?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SIT

↑ 6am departures from JNU are often late

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into SIT at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

JNU (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling3,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

SIT (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling3,300 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.17 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 7005 · JNU → SIT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SIT?