Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 712 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, November 10

AS 712 · SEA → BUR

departs 10:52 AM PT · arrives 1:19 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 67h before departure

Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BUR?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.5 in of rain forecast at SEA that day

↑ 10am departures from SEA are often late

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BUR

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.55 in

BUR (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 712 · SEA → BUR

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUR?