Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 774 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, November 10

AS 774 · LAX → PAE

departs 2:30 PM PT · arrives 5:05 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at PAE more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PAE?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at PAE that day

↑ 2pm departures from LAX are often late

↑ LAX is busy at that time

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

PAE (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.30 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 774 · LAX → PAE

Odds over time

How late will it get to PAE?