Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 777 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, November 10

AS 777 · PAE → LAS

departs 10:41 AM PT · arrives 1:03 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 67h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 1,000 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at PAE that day

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PAE (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.28 in

LAS (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 777 · PAE → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?