Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 816 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, November 10

AS 816 · HNL → SAN

departs 12:39 PM HT · arrives 8:07 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↑ 12pm departures from HNL are often late

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 816 · HNL → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?