Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 827 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, November 10

AS 827 · HNL → SAN

departs 8:28 AM HT · arrives 3:41 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling3,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 827 · HNL → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?