Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 870 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, November 10

AS 870 · HNL → LGB

departs 1:24 PM HT · arrives 8:45 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 51h before departure

Arrive at LGB more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGB?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from HNL are often late

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGB

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGB (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 870 · HNL → LGB

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGB?