Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 924 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, November 10

AS 924 · OGG → OAK

departs 2:08 PM HT · arrives 9:08 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 49h before departure

Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OAK?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into OAK at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK

Weather at each end

OGG (origin) Gusts29 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

OAK (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 924 · OGG → OAK

Odds over time

How late will it get to OAK?