Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 9942 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, November 10

AS 9942 · KOA → HNL

departs 3:45 PM HT · arrives 4:40 PM HT

Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 49h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 1,200 ft forecast at HNL that day

Weather at each end

KOA (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility9.33333 mi Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 9942 · KOA → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?