B6 1086 · MCO → BUF

departs 1:58 PM ET · arrives 4:50 PM ET

Your aircraft is N618JB (A320), coming in as B6 2266 from STI: landed 12:05 PM ET.

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BUF?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↑ B6's recent on-time record

↑ 1pm departures from MCO are often late

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BUF (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

B6 1086 · MCO → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?