Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 433
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 10
B6 433 · MCO → SJU
departs 5:28 PM ET · arrives 9:26 PM AT
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Mon 11/9 26%
Tue 11/10
Wed 11/11 38%
Thu 11/12 39%
Fri 11/13 34%
Sat 11/14 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
33%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Arrive at SJU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJU?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
5pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SJU (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 3,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.25 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.