CZ 428 · ORD → PVG

took off 9:47 PM CT · expected to land 1:25 AM CST (scheduled 12:25 AM CT → 4:11 AM CST)

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at PVG more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PVG?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 12am departures from ORD are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PVG

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PVG (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

CZ 428 · ORD → PVG

Odds over time

How late will it get to PVG?