DL 1040 · AUS → DTW

departs 5:20 AM CT · arrives 9:21 AM ET

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

4% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
96%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from AUS are usually not late

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.03 in

DTW (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1040 · AUS → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?