Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1166
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 10
DL 1166 · JFK → SAT
departs 9:04 AM ET · arrives 11:56 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Mon 11/9 18%
Tue 11/10
Wed 11/11 20%
Thu 11/12 32%
Fri 11/13 23%
Sat 11/14 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9am departures from JFK are often late
↑
SAT is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAT (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.